How will 2023 play out? We scoured for predictions regarding the economy, Hollywood, and lots more. We also have a few of our own.
- The US economy will grow at 0.5%-1% pace, a drop from 1.5%-2% in 2022, and there will be a mild recession near the end of the year. (JPMorgan)
- Disney will spin off ABC and ESPN. (Wells Fargo)
- Media will untether from Twitter. (Casey Newton)
- Bitcoin will decline to $5k. (Standard Chartered)
- Inflation will decline to 4%-5% by May, but it will take much longer to bring it down to 2%-3%. (Mihir Desai, Harvard Business School)
- Big brands will begin to push startups out of the cannabis industry. (Venture capitalist Bradley Tusk)
- Most self-order kiosks at restaurants will be replaced by mobile ordering apps. (Nation’s Restaurant News)
- The S&P 500 will decline, in what is the first negative aggregate prediction tracked by Bloomberg since at least 1999. (Bloomberg)
- The stock market will improve after an early sell-off. (An aggregation of strategists tracked by TKer)
- Real estate will be a “nobody’s market,” with high-priced homes and limited options. (Danielle Hale, chief economist of Realtor.com)
- The global box office for movies will grow 12% to $29B, placing it 27% lower than the average of the three years before the pandemic. (Gower Street Analytics)
- Netflix will merge with Disney or Paramount to create a mega-streamer. (CNBC)
- The NFL will announce two expansion teams in Europe. (Tyson Webber, GMR Marketing)
- Málaga, Spain, will be the trendiest travel destination, followed by Sydney, Australia. (Airbnb)
- “Kitsch” will become a popular aesthetic for interior decorating. (Architectural Digest)
- NFTs will make a comeback — but as a way to authenticate another object. (CoinDesk)
- Investors will stop craving “hockey stick” growth and prioritize profits. (Entrepreneur)
- Self-driving cars will make a real impact but mainly from use by local governments. (Venture capitalist Robert Ravanshenas)
- After a comeback year for the events industry, events agencies will struggle as mid-sized conferences, with between 200 and 2k attendees, falter. (Skift)
- Twitter will invest in exclusive comedy content as a way to jump-start its subscription plan. (Los Angeles Times)
- People will gravitate toward the extremes when it comes to what they’re wearing — opting either for formal or very casual as the economy continues to teeter. During tough economic times, young workers want to put off a proper vibe (even Mark Zuckerberg vowed to wear ties in 2009), and they’ll spend the rest of what they have on cheaper fast-fashion, secondhand clothing, and reasonably priced athleisure, because joggers and yoga pants are much more comfortable splurges than jeans. Sorry, Levi’s. (Mark)
- We’ll see the rise of brands that make no sense. People will try to replicate the success of Liquid Death and its $700m valuation by taking the company’s nonsensical branding strategy to other aisles of the supermarket. What’s stopping someone from making the Liquid Death of rice cakes? Put them in a Pringles can. Make the branding rainbows and butterflies. But call it Murder Rice. (Jacob)
- There will be more room for activities. The sober-curious movement paired with our post-pandemic social awkwardness means nights out might be less getting wasted and more fun group activities. There’s already pickleball, mini golf, pingpong, darts, axes, and soccer if you’re feeling sporty, but next up will be expanded options for the less coordinated crowd. Think painting, board games, ceramics, chess, or video games — only drunk. (Sara)