Oatly’s great stagnation

Last year, it appeared Oatly held the keys to alt milk’s future.

The oat milk pioneer went public in May 2021, valued at $10B. Since then, its stock has tumbled ~80%.

What’s happened?

Simply put, Oatly started a craze, then things got out of hand. Some challenges include:

• Competition, like Planet Oat, which passed Oatly as the highest-selling oat milk brand in the US.
• Supply shortages, leading Starbucks to enlist SunOpta to supplement its oat milk needs. 
• Scrutiny surrounding the purported health and environmental benefits of oat milk.

A recent product recall isn’t helping either.  

What’s next?

The company recently cut its sales outlook for the year by $90m, listing supply chain issues, the war in Ukraine, and inflationary pressures.

But there’s good news: at least the oats don’t have it as bad as the almonds.